I'll level with you. I don't think this Government is particularly competent. I'm predisposed to think that, but the more I hear of cock-ups, getting policy from watching TV, forgetting to consult important people or just basically not knowing how stuff really works, the Con-Dems really don't have much of a clue. Probably, if you believe that the state is an irrelevant intrusion into people's otherwise perfect lives, it's a bit of a shock to find that running the country is actually quite fiddly.
But one part of the brain is alive and kicking within their top brass, and that's the bit that got them where they are now. At the moment it's still unclear what the result of the AV referendum is: by which I mean we don't yet know how massive a drubbing electoral reform has been given at the ballot box. But we do know it's massive.
And I suspect David Cameron has been in control of this since he signed that coalition agreement on a sunny mid May day last year. His genius may look even greater against Clegg's monumental naivety, but by offering the Liberal Democrats a system that made voting about 4.87% fairer, he positioned his troops at the top of the hill. As long as he was ruthless enough to charge, he was always going to win.
This is simply because, in the face of the hostility and bare-faced lies unleashed by the NO campaign, the half-hearted effort of a deeply unpopular Liberal Democrat leadership were never going to inspire the kind of resistance required to turn lies against the liars.
When the Tories used negative campaigning against Blair in 1997 ("New Labour, New Danger!") it didn't work simply because the public were a lot more excited about Blair than they were scared of Labour. The Tories lost ground whenever they tried the tactic. This time round, not even supporters of the change were actually that excited about it. And it was about as easy to get the average-not-really-that-fussed-about-politics type person to believe that this was any more interesting than, say, pensions.
The YES campaign found themselves engaging in debate like the underdog in a contest to be President of the Droitwich Accountant's Association.
The NO camp shouted "AV is expensive!" YES replied "No, not really, well maybe a bit, but nowhere near as expensive as you're saying!" (the massed crowds cheer their defiance)
The NO camp opined "It is the end of One Person One Vote! Supporters of fringe parties have their votes counted MORE TIMES. Tis the end of British democracy!!" YES reply "No, not really, because even if your vote hasn't been transferred upon the elimination of your unsuccessful preferred candidate and you did in fact vote for a more successful candidate who lasts until the final round of voting redistributions your vote is counted every time!!" (the Red Arrows do a fly past)
And so on. Lies like this require an impassioned defence, a roar of outrage that scares the liars and tests their courage. Do we dare continue to tell such porkies in the face of such public outrage? A revolution is imminent! But no one is going to wave a flag, release a balloon or march with a banner for the sake of AV. It's better than First Past the Post, but First Past the Post had the good PR sown up when it was invented. It *isn't* first past the post! The post moves around according to how far the candidates get. AV actually *is* first past the post, in that the finish line stays exactly the same place election to election. People have been spinning FPP for more than 100 years. We never stood a chance.
It's hard to believe that Cameron hadn't got this figured out last May when he signed on the dotted line. He might not be clever enough to run the country, but he's certainly cunning enough to run the Conservative Party.
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